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Impacts and Solutions to Climate Change in Eugene Address to City Club of Eugene by Bob Doppelt and Jim Carlson, October 28, 2005.
The Economic Impacts of Climate Change in Oregon Mark twain once said that, "Everybody talks about the weather but nobody does anything about it." Well, it turns out that mark twain was wrong. Lots of people did something about the weather. Humans -- especially western societies -- have changed the weather -- or more accurately, altered climatic conditions and produced an unprecedented warming pattern due to our use fossil fuels and emission of global warming pollutants such as carbon and methane. This is what I want to talk to you about today. I'm going to start with some unsettling information. But I also want to make it clear that we can solve the problems I am about to describe -- and indeed our economy and communities may be better off for doing so. In the fall of 2004 a team of scientists at Oregon state university organized a scientific consensus statement on global warming that outlines the climatic and ecological changes that warming will bring for Oregon and the Northwest. After the OSU report was released, we at resource innovations at UO began to ask what the socio-economic consequences of those climatic and ecological changes might be. We organized a meeting in May of this year at Lewis and Clark College in Portland where 35 scientists, economists and resource specialists discussed the question. Out of this came an economic consensus report entitled " the economic impacts of climate change in Oregon." The report was vetted by economists across the nation. Knowing that people often do not like to read dense economic reports, the economists developed a short summary. The economists then decided that the information they wanted to share was so important for decision makers to hear that the summary was turned into a letter to the governor and Oregon's other government, civic and business leaders. Over 50 economists signed this unprecedented letter. If I can summarize the message of the economists, it is that they agree that the anticipated impacts of warming on the resources that support Oregon's economy are unprecedented in the state's history, and that those impacts will grow larger the hotter it gets. The average temperature in the pacific northwest has risen by 1.3 degrees F in the past 50 years -- which is slightly above the worldwide average -- and due to the level of greenhouse gasses currently being emitted -- scientists predict that temperatures in Oregon and the PNW are likely to rise another 2.7 degrees f in the next 20 years and by as much as 5.4 degrees f by mid century. That's as much warming every 10 years as the earth as a whole has experienced in the last half century. Each increment of warming will bring new economic impacts. Oregon is particularly vulnerable to global warming because much our economy is dependent on freshwater and much of that freshwater comes from mountain snowpack. For example, much of Oregon's agricultural industry depends on freshwater for irrigation, the forest products industry depends on snowpack and freshwater to reduce stress from high temperatures and drought and to reduce the risk of forest fires. Much of our power comes from the hydroelectric system that depends on steady stream flows. A good deal of Oregon's international trade depends on sufficient water in the Columbia River to allow large container ships to get to the port of Portland. And summer water supply for municipal, industrial, recreational and tourism uses comes from water stored in mountain snowpack. Agriculture, forestry, tourism, and the hydropower industries alone represent 25% of the state's economy. Snowpack is far and away our state's largest reservoir of freshwater. In the past 20-30 years snowpack has been reduced by about 30% and it melts and comes out earlier each year. By 2050, the cascade snowpack is projected to be reduced even more--possibly by 50%---leading to reductions in summer stream flow averaging 50% on the east side and 30% on the west side. And snowpack will continue to decline through the end of the century. Here in Lane County the McKenzie River receives much of its water from sub-surface sources high in the cascades--but those sources are recharged by snowpack. The Willamette River is also heavily dependent on snowpack. Climate change also threatens Oregon's coastal resources-beaches, properties, and infrastructure-due to a projected sea level rise on the order of 1/2 to 3 feet over the next century. The impacts are projected to be particularly felt from Florence north, where the high bluffs exist. The report that the economists prepared summarizes the available economic studies of the impacts of global warming on important sectors of the Oregon economy. Water supply is the most critical issue: estimates suggest that as the mountain snowpack disappears, by 2050, Oregon farmers could lose 2.9 million acre feet of water for irrigation,-- roughly half of what they use today -- valued at between $265 and $995 million. Our communities will face similar shortages, and summer water quality is likely to deteriorate substantially if lower stream volumes have to support the same or even greater levels of pollutants. Think back to the conflicts and impacts on farmers in the Klamath basin in 2001 when snowpack and streamflows were about 50% of normal. Remember that the Klamath has a relatively small population and industrial base. Try to imagine the type of economic impacts and conflicts that may occur in more populated and industrialized parts of Oregon -- such as here in Lane County -- as snowpack and freshwater is reduced to similar levels. Rising temperatures will have other direct impacts on agriculture; while longer growing seasons may yield benefits for some crops, most farm sectors will undergo significant costly changes. Just one example: the wine and orchard industries are particular vulnerable to temperature increases. Indeed, within as little as two decades, the Willamette valley may be too hot to produce Oregon's signature wine, pinot noir. Travel spending contributes more than $6 billion to Oregon's economy each year and employs almost 100,000 people. Reduced snowpack has put Oregon's $200 million ski and snow sports industry at risk--as we saw last winter--while coastal erosion and higher wave action caused by rising sea levels will diminish the state's multi-billion-dollar beach economy. Rising temperatures have already begun to facilitate the spread of pests and diseases-west Nile virus and bark beetle infestation s are two recent examples. New pests and diseases could have potentially severe impacts for agriculture, forest health-and human health -- driving up health care costs even higher. In addition, our region has very low penetration of air-conditioning-so we are vulnerable to the type of deadly extreme heat events experienced recently in Chicago and in Europe. And as more air conditioning is installed, energy use will rise. This will occur at the same time that energy supplies from the region's hydroelectric plants will likely shrink due to reduced summer streamflows. These conflicting forces will likely drive up energy costs for consumers and business. These kinds of predictable economic costs to Oregon and lane county will be significant in all of these sectors even at the low end of warming; costs will rise as warming increases. Moreover, at the higher end warming scenarios, scientists are increasingly concerned about the possibility of abrupt shifts in global climate, resulting from sudden changes in ocean currents, massive methane releases from melting tundra, or collapse of the west Antarctic or Greenland ice sheets. Any of these abrupt climate change events, should they occur, would have catastrophic impacts on the Oregon economy greater than a tsunami or major earthquake. To summarize: the economist's review of the available economic data suggests that global warming has already begun to impose costs on the Oregon economy, and that these costs will rise the hotter it gets. The economists chose not to comment on any specific policy proposals to address these issues. Instead, they recommended that decision-makers use a three-part framework to address the economic risks of global warming: it can be summarized as act, prepare, invest. This framework is based on a basic economic principle, which is that when the risk of economic harm is not zero, it is prudent to take steps to project yourself against those potential risks. For example, we all know that although the chances of our house burning down are low, it's not zero. It could happen. Therefore, we buy homeowners insurance that we may never use, but which we nevertheless view as a good investment because the insurance protects us against potentially huge costs if the policy is needed. That's how the three-part framework suggested by the economists should be thought about--as an insurance policy. Economists said that first, state and local business, civic, and government leaders should act to reduce their emissions of global warming pollutants, such as carbon. Like other forms of risk reduction, this is the most effective step we can take. It's like a safe driver policy: the accident you avoid costs you the least. The city of Portland has reduced emissions to about 1990 levels and seen the city's economy grow while doing so -- which suggests that reducing emissions will not lead to economic harm. Second, the state and local communities should prepare now for the risks that higher temperatures and rising sea levels pose to our state's infrastructure, energy systems, water supplies, public health, economic development, and emergency management systems. Let's not be caught unprepared like many recently were in the gulf states when we know impacts are going to occur. Although we will not have hurricanes, one of the risks of climate change is the likelihood of more extreme weather events. Here in Lane County we should prepare now for intense winter windstorms, rainstorms and flooding, and for catastrophic summer forest fires and drought. Third, the economist's said that state and local governments and the private sector should invest in energy efficiency, renewable power, and other clean technologies and products to use and to export. This will create local jobs and income while also helping to reduce greenhouse gasses and reducing our dependency on imported energy, which keeps dollars at home. Global warming is also creating markets for clean technologies here and across the globe that leading edge local businesses could capitalize on. If decision makers in the private and public sectors act, prepare and invest we can do our part to reduce global emissions -- which is critical to eventually solving the problem. We can also create new jobs in both urban and rural areas, and bolster our capacity to adjust to the impacts already set in motion by warming and to weather any surprises that an altered climate might deliver. We cannot afford complacency, because major sectors of Oregon's economy will ultimately be at risk. We have solved complex problems before and I am personally optimistic that we if we act, prepare, and invest we can solve this problem also. I'm pleased to say that the city of Eugene has begun to seize the opportunities. Mayor Piercy has launched her sustainable business initiative that seeks to retain, grow, and create businesses and jobs in the very types of industries that the economist's believe are important. This is an exciting effort that you will hear more about over time. I am coordinating the SBI for the mayor and we encourage your active involvement. The city of Eugene is doing its part in other ways also. In the spring of this year a team of my graduate students quantified the greenhouse gas emissions produced by internal city government operations. We found that the city had successfully reduced emissions almost down to 1990 levels, which is the target set by the Kyoto accords. The city is doing a great job and as residents we should be very proud of our city government. With me today to talk about the steps the city has taken and plans to take is Jim Carlson, assistant city manager. Jim Carlson My role in today's presentation is to give the City Club some information on what the City of Eugene is doing to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. A first step in the development of a climate protection plan is to understand the current and historic local generation levels of greenhouse gas emissions. This spring, the City worked with Bob and his graduate students to do an assessment of climate protection in Eugene. The students analyzed emissions generated by internal government operations from 1994-2004. The City of Eugene's internally generated greenhouse gas emissions decreased by 7.5% during that period. The population of Eugene increased by 20% during the same period, building square footage increased 19% and the number of employees increased 13.5%. They also determined the sources that contribute to total CO2 equivalent: buildings, wastewater treatment, lighting, fleet and municipal solid waste. In 2004 wastewater contributed the highest percentage at 44.7% with buildings accounting for 33.8% and fleet, solid waste and park lighting producing the remaining 21%. The City has been actively attempting to reduce greenhouse gas emissions since at least 1992 when the largest reductions were made by recovering methane gas at the wastewater treatment plant. The Eugene-Springfield Metro Wastewater Facility (which serves about 220,000 people) currently recovers about 81.5% of the produced methane gas. This captured methane is used as fuel to solely heat the plant's digesters, generate about half of the plant's electrical consumption, and supply heat for about half of the plant's buildings. The annual offset cost realized from this operation is about $270,000. Currently, about 18.5% of the methane is wasted (flared to atmosphere) due to insufficient capacity of the handling equipment. Green Buildings The City has had an energy conservation program in place since 1996. This program has resulted in the retrofit of the largest energy consuming facilities with high efficiency HVAC and lighting systems. Overall, the City is saving about $300,000 in energy costs per year due to these retrofits. New buildings are designed to use less energy than allowed by code, through the use of energy efficient systems and the incorporation of direct digital controls where warranted by the scale and use of the facility. Purchase and installation of high efficiency equipment is standard policy for smaller upgrades and ongoing maintenance, such as lighting, motor or water heater replacement. Ongoing energy usage tracking, O&M staff training and user education insure that new and existing buildings continue to operate at a high level of efficiency for the life of the building. A portion of the energy needed to heat hot water is currently supplied by solar panels at four City locations, especially Sheldon and Amazon pools which are the most energy intensive uses in the City. The two new fire stations also have solar water heating. The City of Eugene is incorporating green building techniques in a number of ways. Sustainability and green building measures are considered and incorporated in new construction projects from the start of the design process. Although not LEED registered, the library and the two new fire stations included a number of green building design and system features that qualify for LEED credits. An overall policy on green building and LEED certification for City construction projects is currently being developed, with consideration by Council targeted for late in 2005. As the majority of the environmental impact of a building is due to its operation over many years, the City is applying LEED "Existing Building" standards to operation and maintenance practices. The City of Eugene was one of the first cities in the country to use LEED criteria as a method to evaluate building maintenance practices on an inventory-wide basis. This is helping the City to initially allocate resources in a way that has the most environmental impact overall, rather than simply focusing resources on certification of a single building. Green Fleet The City's diesel fleet currently uses B20, a blend of 20% biodiesel and 80% diesel. Manufacturer's warranties do not currently support the use of higher percentage biodiesel blends. We are participating in the Lane Clean Diesel program and as it becomes available, the City will be converting the petroleum based portion to ultra low sulfur diesel. This new fuel will dramatically reduce the emissions of our diesel fleet and allow the use of catalytic converters and particulate traps. The City is also actively converting its sedan and gasoline fleet to hybrid vehicles. There are currently 39 hybrid vehicles in the fleet of 100, 27 Toyota Prius and 11 Ford Escape SUV's. The City currently has bicycles at several sites for employees to use for short trips. We are examining several small electric vehicles for use in the parks and on bike paths. The City also provides bus passes for all employees and encourages alternative transportation mode use. Other activities We have an active program to reduce waste going to the regional landfill. The City recently conducted a performance audit on paper and document use at the City and has implemented a variety of programs to reduce the amount of paper being used and recycled. Some of the non-building energy savings programs include using LED fixtures in all traffic signals and in the pedestrian lights. Summary In summary, I would say that the City of Eugene has been actively seeking ways to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions for more than a decade and has made significant progress even as the City has grown. We will continue to look at ways to minimize our footprint and do our part to slow climate change.
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